Shanghai Update – January 2023

The purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for the manufacturing industry dropped 1.0 percentage point to 47.0% in December, below the critical point, indicating that the business conditions of the manufacturing industry have decreased from the previous month. In terms of enterprise size, the PMIs of large, medium and small enterprises were 48.3 percent, 46.4 percent and 44.7 percent, respectively, down 0.8, 1.7 and 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, all below the critical point.

From January 1, 2023, the provisional 0% export tariff for aluminum products of the Customs tariff code 76011010 and 76011090 will be cancelled, and an additional 30% export tariff will be imposed in 2023. Meantime, the Customs tariff code 76012000, will be subject to the export tax rate of 15 percent be stead of 0%. These 3 HS codes belongs to unalloyed or unwrought Aluminum.
On January 5, on the basis of the two-round load management of 1.066 million kW for local electrolytic Aluminum enterprises, Guizhou Power Grid still could not cover the power gap, therefore It issued a new notice again, implementing the third round of tank shutdown and load reduction of 500,000 kW for five electrolytic aluminium enterprises. It is required to start the tank stop and load reduction on January 5. Three rounds of stoppages reduced about 940,000 tons of electrolytic aluminium annually.
On Wednesday, market sources said State authorities had met with some power and steel companies on Tuesday to discuss resuming Australian coal imports. Four companies — Baowu, Datang, Huaneng and Guoneng — will first be allowed to import coal from Australia, with the ban likely to be lifted as early as the 1st of April.

On December 27, 2022, Aluminum Corporation of China announced that Chinalco Group, Company and Yunnan Aluminum Share agreed to increase capital to Chinalco High End Manufacturing by cash and non-monetary assets respectively. Upon completion of the capital increase, the Company and Yunnan Aluminum Shares will acquire approximately 2.14% and 7.01% of Chinalco High End Manufacturing respectively. Chinalco High End Manufacturing will not become an affiliate of the Company and its financial results will not be consolidated in the Company’s accounts.
Recently, Dongqing medium and thick plate factory (NELA) new 36 meters high speed aluminum plate saw cutting machine has achieved completion of the whole line, to achieve the length of 36 meters, width of 3900mm, height of 260mm, stack weight of 40 tons of aluminum plate crib, effectively improve the production efficiency and through the volume.

After falling for 27 straight weeks, freight rates finally stopped falling in the last week of 2022. According to the latest data released by the Shanghai HNA Exchange on December 30, the Shanghai Container freight Index (SCFI) for export rose 0.46 points to 1,107.55 points last week, a weekly gain of 0.04 per cent, with fares for the main Far East to Europe and Far East to Western America rising. The SCFI index slowed to a monthly decline of 9.95 percent in December.
Alphaliner TOP 100 / 10th January 2023

Deutsche Bank expects aluminum demand to benefit from growth in the packaging, automotive, aviation and transportation sectors. Consumer preference for environmentally friendly packaging will drive demand growth and prompt more suppliers to switch to more environmentally friendly aluminium. In addition to the potential for volatility in European energy costs, the bank expects gains from some easing of inflationary pressures in 2023.
South Korea’s government and local companies are scrambling to find ways to counter the European Union’s policy of imposing carbon tariffs on imported products. It said carbon tariffs could cost South Korean companies. The Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade said the carbon border adjustment scheme is expected to reduce South Korean aluminium exports to the EU by about 15% annually.

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LODEC SHANGHAI TEAM